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2023~2024年拉美经济:复苏放缓

作者:熊爱宗 出版日期:2024年01月 报告页数:15 页 报告大小: 报告字数:13665 字 所属丛书:世界经济黄皮书 所属图书:2024年世界经济形势分析与预测 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:2023年拉美和加勒比地区经济将保持缓慢增长,增速预计将从2022年的3.8%放缓至1.7%,2024年可能会进一步降低。在货币政策持续紧缩下,拉美和加勒比地区通胀水平有所下降,但通胀压力依然存在,部分经济体货币政策虽有调整,但总体依然偏紧。随着经济增长放缓,财政赤字预计会进一步扩大,政府债务特别是外债风险也会上升,拉美和加勒比地区仍需平衡好促进经济增长与应对债务问题。全球经济复苏放缓、大宗商品价格走低、全球融资成本居高不下等使得拉美和加勒比地区面临的外... 展开

文章摘要:2023年拉美和加勒比地区经济将保持缓慢增长,增速预计将从2022年的3.8%放缓至1.7%,2024年可能会进一步降低。在货币政策持续紧缩下,拉美和加勒比地区通胀水平有所下降,但通胀压力依然存在,部分经济体货币政策虽有调整,但总体依然偏紧。随着经济增长放缓,财政赤字预计会进一步扩大,政府债务特别是外债风险也会上升,拉美和加勒比地区仍需平衡好促进经济增长与应对债务问题。全球经济复苏放缓、大宗商品价格走低、全球融资成本居高不下等使得拉美和加勒比地区面临的外部环境依然存在诸多不利因素,其应进一步强化金融安全网建设,维护本地区经济与金融稳定。

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Abstract:The economy of Latin America and the Caribbean has maintained a sluggish growth in 2023,and economic growth is projected to decelerate from 3.8% in 2022 to 1.7% and could decline further in 2024. Under the continuous tightening of monetary policy,the inflation level in Latin America and the Caribbean has fallen,but inflationary pressure still exists. Although monetary policy in some economies has been adjusted,it is still tight in... 展开

Abstract:The economy of Latin America and the Caribbean has maintained a sluggish growth in 2023,and economic growth is projected to decelerate from 3.8% in 2022 to 1.7% and could decline further in 2024. Under the continuous tightening of monetary policy,the inflation level in Latin America and the Caribbean has fallen,but inflationary pressure still exists. Although monetary policy in some economies has been adjusted,it is still tight in general. As economic growth decelerates,the fiscal deficit is expected to expand further,and the risk of government debt,especially external debt,will also rise. Latin America and the Caribbean still need to deal with the balance between economic growth promotion and debt problem resolution. With the global economic recovery slowing down,coupled with low commodity prices and high global financing costs,Latin America and the Caribbean are still encountering a range of disadvantages in the external environment. This is necessary to further strengthen the global financial safety net and preserve the economic and financial stability of the region.

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作者简介

熊爱宗:熊爱宗,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所全球治理研究室副研究员,主要研究方向:国际金融、新兴市场。